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Moldova and Georgia share a akin geopolitical position, but their fresh election outcomes could not be more different in signalling their future paths toward Europe. While Moldova is moving steadily toward EU integration, Georgia seems increasingly stuck, with its political scenery raising questions about its commitment to European values.

Moldova’s fresh elections, which reaffirmed a pro-European government, reflect a population determined to advance toward EU integration despite external pressures chiefly from Russia. Undeterred, Moldovans re-elected a government committed to strengthening EU ties. This sets Moldova apart from Georgia, where pro-European aspirations are not mirrored in government leadership. In Moldova, president Sandu’s alignment with these goals helps citizens overcome many obstacles, even on a razor-thin margin, allowing pro-European forces more time to consolidate their position.

In Georgia, by contrast, a political disconnect stifles momentum. While over 85 per cent of Georgian citizens favour joining the EU, a higher proportion than in Moldova, the ruling Georgian Dream organization resists these aspirations and, alternatively of reflecting pro-European sentiment, echoes Russian propaganda. Unlike in Moldova, Georgian citizens who support European integration deficiency representation in leadership. It is crucial to remember that voters in Georgia, having repeatedly witnessed the devastation of war, are susceptible to fears that GD has skilfully linked to anti-western narratives.

In Georgia, we are now left with a government controlled by the country’s wealthiest man, an oligarch with deep ties to Russia. He has already been flagged by European institutions as the sole oligarch of the country. His government, marred by advanced levels of corruption, sees closer alignment with western democracies as a threat to its interests, making it advantageous to stall Georgia’s European aspirations. This is due to the fact that being an EU associate would make it much harder to proceed these practices, especially for a country of Georgia’s size. Meanwhile, Moldova is charging ahead, tackling corruption under Sandu’s leadership and standing out as a beacon of democratic advancement in east Europe, far outpacing Georgia in its reforms.

This leadership stance has had various consequences: the European Commission’s fresh enlargement report acknowledged Moldova’s progress but froze Georgia’s accession process due to unmet commitments. Meanwhile, the credibility of Georgia’s elections has besides suffered, as the dispute over the parliamentary voting results continues.

Perhaps most telling is the global consequence to Georgia’s election results. Unlike Moldova, whose leadership was rapidly recognized and congratulated by the EU and US, Georgia’s ruling organization received acknowledgment primarily from non-western countries. Turkey, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Hungary, Venezuela, China and Iran were among the fewer to congratulate the Georgian Dream organization on its victory. Above all this is an indication of Georgia’s increasing diplomatic isolation from its democratic allies. Russia’s abroad minister even announced his country’s readiness to proceed normalizing relations with Georgia, highlighting the country’s drift toward Moscow’s sphere of influence.

Meanwhile, the EU and the US withheld any endorsement, with president Joe Biden calling on the Georgian government to analyse reports of election-related abuses, including voter intimidation and coercion. This selective designation both reflects Georgia’s current distance from the West and signals possible repercussions regarding its way to the EU if it continues on this trajectory.

The Georgian government’s actions and election outcomes are taking a toll on its finances. The EU and respective western countries have frozen aid and suspended joint projects, citing concerns over Georgia’s alignment with EU values. This failure of global support not only limits crucial backing but besides signals to Georgians that their government’s choices may be jeopardizing ties with the West. Meanwhile, Moldova’s pro-European stance is paying off, with endorsements from EU and US leaders and crucial financial support from Brussels. These offer a clear sign of assurance in Moldova’s way toward integration.

The Georgian government faces renewed home and global pressure, echoing the tensions of the 2020 elections and underscoring lessons yet to be learned. Now, with the president herself calling the results rigged, the opposition is gaining support from global partners who are withholding formal recognition. Yet, both these hopes are precarious, much like walking a fine line.

On the 1 hand, the opposition must show stronger unity and resilience in these protests. They should admit that, while many citizens are fighting for a European future, this does not automatically translate into support for their parties. Even now, erstwhile the Georgian Dream government manipulatively announced the suspension of all EU accession talks until 2028, sparking protests from hundreds of thousands of Georgians, there remains a deficiency of strong leadership. The opposition lacks adequate strength and continues to trust primarily on the missteps of the GD government to fuel their momentum.

The opposition’s key misstep during the pre-election run was assuming that pro-western voters would full support them, which weakened their overall appeal. Georgia’s opposition, who share aspirations akin to Sandu’s government, did not just appear weak. Overall, they seemed unaware of the impact of this fear-based strategy.

On the another hand, the continued silence from global partners, especially the EU (with the US preoccupied with its own challenges), could yet harm Georgia more than help. While it has not explicitly caused isolation, suspending Georgia’s EU accession process risks pushing the country closer to illiberal forces like Russia. Even Viktor Orbán of Hungary’s “friendly” visits item who is attempting to take the lead in Georgia’s case. Staying neutral on the election only worsens the situation.

Irakli Machaidze is a Georgian political writer, analytical writer and fellow with Young Voices Europe. Irakli is presently based in fresh York, US, pursuing advanced studies in global Relations and working as a fellow at Columbia University. He specializes in EU policy and regional safety in Europe.

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